Juiced up about Baseball Science

process engineering

Those who have followed my blog already know some about my background. For instance, I am an avid baseball fan. But here’s a new fact…I have been playing baseball since I was 5 years old. In fact, when I was 12, I was coached by the famous musical band, The Tokens, whose biggest hit was “The Lion Sleeps Tonight.” Needless to say, this was not a winning team. Success was always just “a win away, a win away…”

 

The Chemistry of Baseballs

With the playoffs and World Series looming, the controversy once again has arisen about the “juiced baseball.” This season the number of home runs per game has increased to 2.54 from 2.03. Hit Tracker Online provides us with all the stats and information on “how far it really went” for MLB games.

But what is really going on? There are many theories:

  • hotter temperatures due to global warming
  • strike zone changes
  • stronger and younger players
  • pitching changes.

If we focus on the data, which is what we do as chemical engineers, there are some other interesting ideas to consider.

One theory is based upon the drag coefficient (air resistance) of the ball, as discussed by Rob Arthur. His hypothesis is that the drag coefficient has decreased to 0.344 from 0.357. While this does not sound like much, it can add over five feet to the ball’s distance. This would be enough to increase the number of home runs by 10 – 15%.

Another theory by Ben Lindbergh and Mitchel Lichtman suggests an “air-ball revolution” meaning that players are swinging differently. Several MLB players have been in the news for focusing on hitting the ball harder in the air, and elevating it off the ground more.

 

Testing Baseball’s Stuff

Chemical & Engineering News also has weighed in on data from Rawlings, which has been the Major League Baseball (MLB) supplier for many years. Matt Davenport’s 26 June 2017 article Materials: What’s That Stuff? states the ball is the same and references the ball’s Coefficient of Restitution (COR) value, which has always been between 0.514 – 0.578. The COR refers to the ability of an object to bounce back to its original height when dropped from a certain height. The recognized standard for COR testing is an ASTM method F-1887.

Thus, why we’re seeing such a run on home runs remains a mystery and will be debated for a long time. My idea…let’s have a hot dog and a beer and share theories. As Ernie Banks said “It’s a great day for a ball game; let’s play two!”

Relating The Undoing Project to Unfiltered Thinking

decision making
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This summer I read The Undoing Project, by Michael Lewis. Lewis has also written Liar’s Poker, Moneyball, The Blind Side, and Flash Boys — so maybe you’re familiar with his work. His 2016 book, with the subtitle “A Friendship that Changed Our Minds” introduces us to two Israeli psychologists whose work changed everything from medicine to investing and revealed the weirdness of the human mind. This is also the story of two men with different backgrounds collaborating to create new ideas and new theories.

In the 1970s, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky changed our understanding of human judgment and decision-making. In 2002, Kahneman won the Nobel Prize in Economics (Tversky would undoubtedly have won as well, if he hadn’t died of cancer several years earlier).

Kahneman and Tversky created the field of behavioral economics and showed how the human mind makes errors in judgement in uncertain situations. Their work led to the use of algorithms and big data gathering rather than relying on human intuition. Lewis’s book offers many examples of how this work is used today:

  • Index funds in the stock market
  • evidence-based medicine rather than “diagnosis from the gut”
  • sports such as basketball and baseball using algorithms to analyze players and draft choices
  • government decisions on tax policy, trade, etc. in the US, Great Britain, Australia, Germany, Scandinavia and others.

Relating Undoing to Unfiltered

While the applications of Kahneman and Tversky’s thinking are very interesting, especially data analysis, the aspect that impacts my blog readers is that of sample size. According to Lewis, the collaborators concluded that “in the search for scientific truths, [all scientists] were relying far more than they knew on chance…What’s more, because they had so much faith in the power of small samples, they tended to rationalize whatever they found in them.”

This realization, according to many in the field of measurement and statistics, was the duo’s stroke of genius. For example, a study of 40 subjects/topics gave only a 50% chance of accurately reflecting the answer while to have a 90% chance of being correct, the sample would need to be increased to over 130.

In our chemical engineering business, considering an appropriate sample is a critical point whether it’s with filtration testing, reaction chemistry, drying analysis, etc. Thinking about Kahneman and Tversky reminds us we all must remember to keep in mind our biases and get as large as sample as possible.

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Scaffolding for Creativity in Business

Creativity in Business
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We’ve all seen scaffolding set up to support work in the construction, maintenance, cleaning and repair of buildings, bridges, houses, and more. While these structures are rarely permanent — and are hoped to be in use only a short period of time — they must be reliable and up-to-date.

Now, you may ask, why blog about scaffolds?

The key point is that a scaffold is a critical support feature. Truly, everyone needs a scaffold for support in a job, business, and company and in their personal lives. I don’t claim to be a relationship guru, so let’s only focus on your job, business and company.

Scaffolding creativity

I maintain that the most important scaffold is creative people doing creative things. This can mean your clients as well as the technology supplier. For example, creative clients have brought to BHS applications for biochemicals (using straw, wheat, bagasse, wood and plastics), fats, lipids and proteins (using chicken renderings and process water used to clean equipment in dairy operations), amino acids, inorganic chemicals and salts, final and bulk pharmaceuticals and oil & gas and refinery operations, including offshore.

At the same time, BHS has provided unique and creative process solutions in all of these cases. One fun case saw us using dimethyl ether, under continuous pressure so it operates as a liquid, with zero fugitive emissions.

Creating permanence for creative mindset

Yet, while scaffolds are transient structures, in business we must consider the question of “how do we ensure the creative people maintain their creativity?” In a recent AICHE article Paul Baybutt stated, “while most people are born with the capacity for creative thinking, this skill can be lost through formal education and societal pressures that discourage it.”

Nevertheless, he noted, “luckily, creative thinking can be learned.” He described several characteristics of a creative thinker such as:

  • thinks imaginatively and with an open mind to new ideas
  • views issues as challenges
  • believes alternatives exist
  • able to live with ambiguity and tolerate a degree of chaos
  • self-confident and knows how to ask good questions.
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Photo credit: soham_pablo via Foter.com / CC BY

What can leaders and businesses do to keep the creative juices flowing? Baybutt provided some insights:

  • Be patient and curious
  • Persevere and maintain a positive frame of mind
  • Welcome challenges and embrace mistakes as learning experiences
  • Explore rather than prove
  • Follow your gut
  • Have a desire to “consider” rather than “argue.”

The idea behind scaffolding is to connect workers with their project in a safe, supported way. Creativity too will thrive in this environment — if we find ways to scaffold our creative thinkers to innovation success.

Lessons Learned from Nathan’s

“You can take the boy out of Brooklyn, but you can’t take Brooklyn out of the boy.”

Innovation Engineering
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Growing up in Brooklyn, I could bicycle about 5 miles to the ocean and Coney Island. I would always stop at Nathan’s Famous. The stop was always for a hot dog, some fries, a Coke, and then a day on the beach. For those who do not know, Nathan’s has sold more than 500 million (all-beef) hot dogs since its inception; it’s brand of hotdogs are now available at more than 53,000 outlets in all 50 states and 10 foreign countries.

I may not be one of the celebrity loyalists — those included performers such as Cary Grant, Barbara Streisand, gangsters Al Capone, Scarface, Bugsy Siegel, and politicians Bernie Sanders, President Donald Trump… But how does this memory relate to this blog?

Lessons Learned from Nathan’s

Nathan Handwerker, an Eastern European Jewish immigrant arrived at Ellis Island speaking not a word of English, unable to read or write, and with twenty-five dollars hidden in his shoes. He had a simple goal: work hard, remain fiercely loyal to what matters most, customers and employees, and stay focused on what you know best. Nathan’s began in 1916 and recently celebrated its 100th anniversary. The Coney Island location is now home, of course, to the 4th of July hot-dog eating contest.

Whether or not you’re dealing with hotdogs, though, we can all learn from Nathan’s. First, stay loyal. This cuts across all aspects of work and family. BHS is over 400 years old, so we have been around a long time. But staying loyal to your business, process, technology or whatever you are engaged with is critical to success.

Nathan’s always focused on “quality food at a fair price” to “bring the customers back.” Nathan personally checked every hot dog that came into the restaurant as well as oil temperature for the fries and grill temperature. As a technology supplier, quality at a fair price is what we do. On the operations side, providing quality chemicals, pharmaceuticals, etc., is the key to survival.

Initially Nathan’s sold hot dogs for 10 cents, the same price as the popular Coney Island outpost Feltman’s beer garden. Then, the enterprising young entrepreneur, after netting a mere $60 in his first days of business, decided to lower his prices to 5 cents. With higher volume his next week’s receipts totaled $260. This was the first fast-food price war and one of the brand’s first innovations.

Nathan’s also introduced the food industry, to purifying the cooking oil, refrigeration and cleanliness as well as “chow mein on a bun” and beer after prohibition.

Loyalty, quality, innovation…seems that I learned a lot from those “old” Brooklyn days. Let me know how your younger days influenced your career. I’m sure we will hear some interesting stories.

Transparency and the Chemical Process Industry

Chemical Processing
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Transparency is good in government, public service, politics, your personal life, and — of course — in business. Think of buyers and sellers…EBay, Airbnb and Uber. We all want more transparency — especially in the current turbulent times. Transparency helps in information gathering, coordination, accountability and decision-making.

But what about in the Chemical Process Industry (CPI)? On one hand, transparency is important for safety and process development. Especially important is transparency in the case of experimental errors or in process equipment.

Mistakes happen

In all of our careers, there has been a time when a mistake happens, maybe a small one and hopefully not a big one. But, if it happens, maximum transparency is critical.

  • First, identify the mistake: Did the process fail? Was the sizing of the machine wrong? Was the application incorrect?
  • Next, apologize and propose a solution.
  • Finally, take action to solve the problem.

Transparency in CPI

Looking at transparency from another angle, sometimes more is better. In an article by McKinsey & Company focused on the “dark side of transparency” and its unintended consequences. The authors outline how excessive sharing of information creates information overload, endless debate and even possibly reduced creativity as ideas are squashed before they can be fully explored.

In the CPI, there are times when more is better and also when less is better. For example, in the relationship between the equipment supplier and the process development engineer, more transparency is better. The more the supplier knows about the process, the better the process solution. This can also reduce chances of the wrong application or wrong sizing, as discussed earlier, and avoidance of the need for an apology after a mistake.

On the other hand, less transparency may be necessary when it involves corporate strategies and competitive advantage. For process equipment, a new development or improved design leading to a unique process solution benefits the client and the technology supplier, but not the competition. The same is true of information shared by the client with the technology supplier. We sign many NDA’s today to protect the client’s strategies for new processes, new compounds, new markets, and new approaches.

What do you think, more or less? Every day we face these questions. Find me on LinkedIn and let me know your ideas and the skills that you have developed to get the transparency balance correct. Keep in mind, though, your comments will be transparent and may be shared with my readers.

Trusting your Gut

process engineering consultant
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I recently read two articles on “Trusting Your Gut” in two completely different settings. The first was an editorial for Chemical Engineering Progress by its Editor-in-Chief Cynthia Mascone. The other was in the McKinsey Quarterly, an article on “How to Test Your Decision-Making Instincts” by Andrew Campbell and Jo Whitehead. In both, there was an agreement that trusting your gut is OK within certain boundaries.

As engineers, we depend upon data and analysis. Still, sometimes we make decisions based upon instinct, intuition our past experiences. In the Harvard Business Review, Aledn Hayashi termed this “cross-indexing.” It is the ability to see similar patterns in disparate fields and to elevate intuitive skills from good to subline. Hayashi also points out that the power of cross-indexing increases with the amount of disparate material that can be applied…this comes with experience.

Campbell and Whitehead illustrate four tests that help us gain confidence that we are drawing on the correct experiences and emotions:

  1. The familiarity test: Have we frequently experienced identical or similar situations? To put it another way, how many uncertainties are there in this situation?
  2. The feedback test: Did we get reliable feedback in past situations? Are there many “yes” people that prevent this feedback?
  3. The measured-emotions test: Do we experience heightened emotions in similar or related situations? Are there biases in the situation?
  4. The independence test: Are we likely to be influenced by personal interests or attachments? For instance, the Chick-fil-a cows campaign to inspire hungry people to “eat mor chikn.”

If one of these tests fail, then more data or more challenge is necessary. We should never ignore our gut. The key is to know when to listen to what it’s telling us. In process development and in this blog, we always say “test, test, and test.”

Sometimes testing data is not available. Then, as long as there is transparency with the engineering team, client, and management, trusting your gut is OK.

Have you had any specific experiences where “the gut: has been advantageous? Let me know.

The Inspiration of Travel

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In mid-April, I attended GasTech 2017 in Tokyo. The focus of GasTech was Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and its impact on the world’s energy balance, carbon emissions and technology. At the same time I was focused on all the interesting characteristics of Japan itself — it was my first time visiting. I always find I am truly inspired by travel and the new experiences it brings.

Novel Experiences in Japan

As in all countries, Japan has its own unique characteristics. There is a sense oforderliness that you do not find in many places around the world. On escalators, for example, you stand on the left and walk on the right. Plus, smoking, eating, drinking, cell phone talking in public are considered impolite and are frowned upon.

However, bicycles have free rein. During our trip, we biked 13 miles throughout Tokyo; what a ride! Speaking of rides, the trains go everywhere and run all of the time and are the safest that I have used. You only need two maps (rail and subway) and then you are fine.

We were also there during the famous cherry blossom season. We enjoyed white, red, pink, weeping willows. Who would have known there were so many different types? Even if you travel there in another season you won’t want to miss the beauty of Japanese gardens. SLS Charlotte

All You Need is Arigato

Handling money and credit cards is rather interesting. There are small trays near every register and you place your money the tray. Credit cards are presented with two hands and a nod of the head. Don’t worry about tipping as there is no tipping and high quality service is the norm. Only an “Arigato,” or thank you, is necessary.

You may be familiar with Japanese food such as sushi or tempura but the taste in Japan is unique. Also try specialty ramen, soba and udon noodles. Japanese “hot pot” styles, nabemono, are common with many different types of oils and broths including tofu and my favorite vegetables of konjac and the satoimo root (sweet taro). With your meal, enjoy a Japanese beer or cold, lukewarm, or hot sake. You might even try a paired dinner with different sake for each course.

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Finally, be sure to balance your business with visits to the imperial palaces, Shinto and Buddhist shrines, and Tokyo’s 47 neighborhoods. We also enjoyed a Tokyo Giants baseball game! Check out my photos, and let’s meet in Japan for business together.

Cruising Into a Future with LNG

liquified gas Charlotte
Image source: Travel Weekly

In mid-April, I attended GasTech 2017 in Tokyo. The focus of GasTech was Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and its impact on the world’s energy balance, carbon emissions, and technology. Now, I didn’t take a cruise ship all of the way from Charlotte, North Carolina, to Japan, but there are some interesting overlaps between LNG and cruising.

Why Liquefied Natural Gas

First, we need to understand LNG and its growing market share.

LNG is an odorless, colorless and non-corrosive natural gas that has been converted to liquid form for ease of storage or transport. It takes up about 1/600th the volume of natural gas in the gaseous state (cruise ship stewards likely wish human luggage could take up 1/600th the volume too!).

The liquefaction process involves removal of certain components, such as dust, acid gases, water and heavy hydrocarbons. The natural gas is then condensed into a liquid at close to atmospheric pressure by cooling it to approximately −162 °C (−260 °F); maximum transport pressure is set at around 25 kPa (4 psi).

LNG is principally used for transporting natural gas to markets, where it is regasified and distributed as pipeline natural gas. LNG is expected to hit 10% of the global crude production by 2020.

Yet LNG is also being used to power ships worldwide. There are 100 LNG-outfitted ships today with another 72 LNG-ready and another 100 in manufacturing. This growth reflects a demand for energy efficiency and new international rules on sulfur content of fuel.

Smooth Sailing for LNG Ships

The primary use for LNG ships today is car and passenger ferries. Cargo ships rank second, and now the cruise industry is getting into the action with 11 ships already on order. According to Travel Weekly, Lloyd’s Register predicts “there will be 653 LNG-powered ships of all types built between 2012 and 2025, including 25 cruise ships.”
Soon you’ll be able to cruise to the islands with more efficiency. Talk about a win-win proposition! Although a trip to Tokyo would be worth taking, even without the cruise experience – I’ll be sharing my thoughts on the trip in a future blog (along with some photos).

In the meantime, GasTech was a great learning opportunity. I enjoyed discussions of LNG technology, gas transmissions and pipelines, infrastructure to use LNG as well as operator training. Check out the website, http://www.gastechnews.com/. The conference, once again, showed how the world is tied together for energy and environmental issues. Let me know your ideas and LNG questions.

Innovating Zero Gravity Espresso

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Image source: foter.com

Ambition to improve is everywhere, and not only limited to corporate labs and academia. I love to see examples of innovation in any field — from wind turbines to cloud seeding or surfing to strawberries. Those who are loyal readers of this blog know that I’ve already written about each of those. Today though I am turning to some new tech that relates to what we do every day to solve chemical engineering problems.

Despite what contrarians might say, humans long ago solved the mystery of making perfect coffee on earth. Yet building an espresso machine for the international space station was a much bigger challenge. Bloomberg last year featured an Italian engineering firm, Argotec, spent over 18 months with 11 engineers working to develop a microgravity brewing process that could meet NASA’s rigorous safety standards.

In Earth gravity, we force almost boiling water through finely ground coffee beans. The water boils, becomes less dense and the steam pushes into the air above. But hot water behaves differently in near-zero gravity. The steam does not rise; staying put it can create a dangerous vapor bubble suspended in a ball of water. So, to avoid bubbles, Argotec used a special thin-steel pipe to ensure the water couldn’t build up heat bubbles.

The next problem was pressure. NASA safety rules anything over 60 psig a concern. Espresso brewing requires at least twice as much pressure. Argotec engineers determined that they could address this by eliminating a traditional rotary pump and instead using an electric motor to drive the plunger.

What about leaks and pressure relief? This is a common problem for all chemical plants, but even more difficult in zero gravity. Argotec made it so that every piece of pipe had relief valves with piping back to a central pressure containment chamber.

 

That left the question of how to drink an espresso in outer space? Think, after all, of the Tang crystals that are so famous as a space drink. The espresso-loving engineers designed a mechanism to blow air through the coffee capsule into a zip-lock coffee cup.

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We all know how nice it is to have a hot espresso when trying to solve a process problem. Now our astronauts have the same opportunity to get the brain cells jumping in space. This is yet another exciting example of how process engineers have to brainstorm new approaches to separation problems.

Groundbreaking Study of Filtration Technology

 

filtration technologies
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This blog has long touted the importance of testing, testing and more testing. It’s probably fortunate I don’t teach — my students would be complaining about all of my quizzes and exams as I applied my mantra literally!

Still, it remains amazing to me that with the critical importance of good information about filter aids, filter media and filtration technologies, that there isn’t one comprehensive approach to filter aid usage, filter media and wrapping all of this into filtration technology selection.

Yes, you can find abundant information about each in the literature and the filtration marketplace. Industry experts and suppliers cover these exhaustively, but their writing is focused inwardly.

For instance, you might learn about specific applications such as:
applied mineral filter aids in beer filtration
separating niter when boiling sap for maple syrup
• filtering wine with diatomaceous earth filter aid (DE)

And reading these, you would not be blamed for longing for a drink or a sweet treat. Here’s one more on filtering liquid chocolate – just to be sure your mouth is watering.

Yet, no matter the manufacturing process in question, its left to the engineers to gather this information, make their own comparisons and then develop a process solution. With so many sources helping the process engineer “find the right machine,” or offering “a high performance solution you can rely on” it’s challenging to make the best choice.

BHS aims to change this. We’re right now undertaking a groundbreaking study to develop a comprehensive approach to the marketplace. Our research and testing is now underway with a completion date of August 2017, but we’d welcome your contributions and ideas!